Imagine a pitcher returning from a career-altering surgery, fighting to reclaim his spot in the big leagues. That’s the story of Adbert Alzolay, who’s now aiming to secure a place in the Mets’ bullpen after undergoing Tommy John surgery. But here’s where it gets intriguing: can he not only bounce back but also thrive in a competitive roster battle? Let’s dive in.
When the Mets signed Alzolay to a two-year minor league deal ahead of the 2025 season, their sights were firmly set on 2026. The right-handed reliever had just undergone Tommy John surgery in late 2024, and while some pitchers rush back within a year, the Mets took a cautious approach, keeping him out of minor league games entirely in 2025. And this is the part most people miss: Alzolay did pitch four innings in the Venezuelan Winter League after the 2025 season, a subtle yet significant step in his recovery. Now, he’s entering spring training as a fully healthy pitcher, and with no options remaining, he’s positioned to outpace some of his competitors.
Alzolay’s journey to this point hasn’t been without its highlights. After earning a spot on the Baseball Prospectus 101 list ahead of the 2018 season, he made his MLB debut with the Cubs in 2019. Over the next few years, he logged 159.1 major league innings, primarily as a starter, with a 4.58 ERA and 4.68 FIP. But here’s the controversial part: while his 2021 season showed promise, a right lat injury sidelined him for most of 2022. When he returned, the Cubs shifted him to a multi-inning reliever role, a move that paid off in 2023, his best season yet. That year, he posted a stellar 2.67 ERA and 3.02 FIP across 64 innings, showcasing his potential as a dominant reliever.
However, 2024 was a different story. Alzolay struggled through 17.1 innings before an elbow injury ended his season in mid-May. After a brief rehab stint in July, he underwent Tommy John surgery in August. The big question now: Can he recapture his 2023 magic? That season stands out as the only one where he was both healthy and exclusively a reliever. His strikeout rate was decent, but his 5.1% walk rate was exceptional—nearly half the 9.5% league average for relievers that year.
The Mets’ handling of Alzolay draws parallels to their approach with Brooks Raley, who also returned from Tommy John surgery. They signed Raley to a one-year deal with a team option during his recovery, and he delivered a strong performance last season. If Alzolay can come close to matching Raley’s success, he’ll be a valuable asset. But here’s the bold prediction: If he impresses during the Grapefruit League schedule, he’s a lock for the Mets’ Opening Day roster.
Projections from FanGraphs suggest Alzolay will throw around 40 innings this year with an ERA near 4.00. Even that would be a win given his recent setbacks, but if he exceeds expectations, it’s a massive victory for the Mets. Now, here’s where you come in: Do you think Alzolay can return to form, or will his injury history hold him back? Share your thoughts in the comments—let’s spark a debate!
